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Local News |
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| Earlier primary gives Maryland a voice |
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| By Karen Karaszkiewicz, Times Staff Writer |
Thursday, February 07, 2008 |
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A tight race and an earlier primary election give Maryland a chance to have an effect on the presidential race, even if it seems unlikely to decide the winner in either race.
Gregory Pecoraro, a Westminster councilman and member of the Democratic National Committee, said residents can most likely expect to see Democratic presidential candidates Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama visit the state sometime before the so-called Potomac Primaries Tuesday in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.
It is unlikely, though, that any of candidates will make campaign stops in Carroll County. Martin Radinsky, chairman of Carroll’s Democratic Central Committee, said the candidates will probably visit the Baltimore or Washington, D.C., metropolitan areas.
“When it does happen, it will be short notice — 36 hours,” he said.
Democrats have 168 delegates up for grabs among the three jurisdictions, including 70 in Maryland, according to Pecoraro.
In the past, the state has played less of a role in deciding the major presidential candidates, which is why this year’s primary was moved from March to Feb. 12 — one week after the 24-state Super Tuesday, Pecoraro said.
Clinton and Obama have each been awarded fewer than half of the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination, making it mathematically impossible for a winner to be declared after Tuesday’s primary election, said Radinsky.
“You’re really playing for every delegate at this point,” he said.
Clinton has been endorsed in Maryland by Gov. Martin O’Malley and Sen. Barbara Mikulski, while Comptroller Peter Franchot and Attorney General Doug Gansler are among those who have endorsed Obama.
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“Basically, it’s up in the air,” said Herb Smith, a professor of political science at McDaniel College, who predicts voter turnout in Maryland could be as high as 40 or 50 percent in this year’s primary. Statewide turnout for the 2004 presidential primary election was less than 24 percent, according to data from the Maryland State Board of Elections.
Kathleen Kendall, a research professor at the University of Maryland, College Park, who specializes in political communication, said Obama is most likely to carry Maryland because of the its large proportion of black voters.
She said Obama has received votes from at least 80 percent of blacks who have voted in primary elections so far. The demographic accounts for 29 percent of Maryland’s population, with about one-third living in Prince Georges County, she said.
Maryland could also be a key state for the Republicans Tuesday, according to Larry Helminiak, chairman of the Republican Central Committee of Carroll County.
He said Sen. John McCain, who has won more delegates than the other Republican presidential candidates combined, has been most successful in states with open primary elections, because he has been favored by independents. Maryland has a closed Republican primary, which means independents cannot vote and McCain may struggle in Maryland’s primary.
Helminiak said Republicans in the state tend to be reliably conservative, especially in the sixth congressional district, which includes Carroll County.
“My guess is that Carroll County will go very strongly for [Massachusetts Gov. Mitt] Romney,” Helminiak said.
He said Romney is scheduled to attend an annual dinner tonight in Halethorpe hosted by the Baltimore County Republican Central Committee.
Reach staff writer Karen Karaszkiewicz at 410-857-7890 or karen.karaszkiewicz@carrollcountytimes.com.
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